Scientific Consensus

The scientific community agrees on a current consensus – which is constantly adjusted according to the latest findings. THAT is the difference to religious beliefs and dogmas.

Unfortunately, after having evaluated many different scientific fields and teachings myself and gone beyond the “Dunning-Kruger-Effect”, I had to come to the conclusion that, on average, about 50% of today’s scientific consensus will most likely be falsified in the future.

Mathematics scores much higher – maybe less than 2% will be falsified in the future, since it is close to impossible to cheat… At least at the basics. At the fringes where proofs can only be conducted with the help of computers and AI, it becomes less transparent.

Other fields score much worse. While of course I cannot possibly know the actual percentage (I would have to know everything that is wrong and of course that is impossible) – it is a rough guesstimate after examining a finite set of examples, analyzing them for biases and errors and observing in particular the quality of the scientists in the respective fields. These numbers represent how confident I am in these respective fields – and yes – this is my personal opinion that I won’t be able to sufficiently justify. It’s an extrapolation based on the history of science and my observing the weaknesses of scientists which are the Achilles heel when it comes to scientific method.

Guesstimated percentage of how much of today’s “scientific consensus” might be falsified in the future:

  • Chemistry: 30%
  • Physics: 40%
  • Biology: 50%
  • History: 60%
  • Economics: 70%
  • Climate science: 80%

With such a low confidence in the current state of science and the “scientific consensus” – how should I put trust in (corrupt) politicians and unelected bureaucrats who pretend to know what’s “good for me”?

I will follow up by publishing case studies where I will demonstrate the existing biases in some scientific fields.

Maybe the most prevalent and damning bias in the field of science is the bias about not being prone to cognitive biases. We fall victim to cognitive biases EVEN IF WE ARE AWARE OF THEM!

Biases connected to this issue have already been coined, such as the “bias blind spot”, the systemic bias and the “academic bias” etc.

  • Expectation shapes perception
  • Incentive shapes behavior